Whilst Teva is still a very important cog in the evolving MSB story, to my mind at least, Celgene's entry is equally, if not more so, as important.
Here's a theory espoused by a mate of mine which I think makes a bit of sense...Celgene has been an early entrant into stem cell technology and have spent significant amounts on a Crohn's disease solution. Celgene would almost certainly have bought Osiris if they hadn't been blocked out by MSB. Believing that Celgene paid more for their stake in MSB than MSB paid for Osiris, for an option to bid for 2 assets the market ascribes little value to, stretches credulity. They could have paid $15m for the same outcome in a non-equity deal.
It would seem that Celgene want to put themselves in the box seat ahead of the kidney disease and inflammatory disease results due shortly. It would not be stretching the realms of possibility to suggest that Celgene may want a greater stake in the currently un-partnered late stage trials (outside disc and cardiac) which would put MSB in a strong cash position and free from the funding issues the bears currently obsess about.
By October, MSB could be in an extremely strong cash position, have 3 externally funded Phase III trials and 2 major "big-pharma" shareholders. The bottom line really is that Celgene could emulate Roche with their Genetech acquisition and increase it's current stake by creeping higher over the next few months and years...incidentally, the architect for Roche's strategy with Genetech was a guy called Bill Burns, currently an MSB director.
And before I get shot down by any pedants out there, this is just speculation, to get away from the current obsession with conspiracy theories regarding shorting!
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