I know there are regular updates of valuations by the more informed here, but back of the envelope calculations (please correct me if I am misguided on any of these):
Magnolia @ 8 mtpa = AUD$1.35bn * 60% to LNG = AUD$0.81bn
Bear Head @ 12 mtpa = AUD$2.025bn
Total = AUD$2.835bn EBIT
~465 million shares = AUD$6.09 EPS
At a P/E of 10, this results in a share price of AUD$60.90 at full production.
At the touted MLP P/E of 15, it becomes AUD$91.35.
Obviously there will be some dilution of this due to capital or debt raising, but still a long way from $4.80 as we currently stand.
Has there been any word on the new Foster's report? Interesting to see how much less conservative their valuations are now.
Also, I'm not a tax expert, but wouldn't we have a lot of losses to carry forward into the first year of revenue?
LNG Price at posting:
$4.80 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held