http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...y-endure-as-majors-take-more-disciplined-tack
Iron Bull Market May Endure
Iron ore may extend a bull-market rally should the world’s biggest producers slow expansions further and even start to cut output from their higher-cost mines, according to Michael Zhu, former global sales director at Vale SA.
The raw material will probably increase to average $60 to $70 a metric ton this year, Zhu, president of Hong Kong-based trader Millennia Resources Ltd., said in a phone interview on Monday. So far this year, it’s averaged $59.83 after dropping to a low of $47.08 on April 2. The commodity slumped 47 percent last year and remains 70 percent below its 2011 record.
Iron ore entered a bull market on Friday, rising more than 20 percent from its closing low, after BHP Billiton Ltd. said that it will slow the pace of expansion in Australia by deferring port works and some smaller suppliers shuttered mines. A floor in prices may now be forming, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. A fourth day of gains on Monday would be the longest run this year.
The “market is mainly in the hands of the Big Four: if just one takes a little action, it has a big influence,” said Zhu, referring to Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto Group and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. “If I were the miners, I’d say our responsibility is to satisfy the demand of the steel industry. I don’t need to produce more, I don’t want to produce less.”
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