Theory behind trading halt and more....., page-4

This could go one of two ways in the very short term. The short term reaction to most issues is nearly always down. As stags prevail. However, occasionally, an issue is such a strong endorsement by professionals that the business side is about to go ballistic, and demand is so acute, that the shares actually rise strongly instead.

The unexplained double dip down to 67c has allowed me to restore my holdings below 70c after a few stale sell orders got hit this month at 76c. I suspected the drift down could be a small player making room for new stock, but they would have to be US investors already positioned - and to be frank, the volumes haven't matched it. In the end we all know a U.S. placement is coming to facilitate spread in the US market. But with the listing timed for September, this is too early for that.

I think it must be a preparatory US placement, ahead of the full listing issue, and the quarterly shows why. The company's balance sheet is simply too small for the scale of the opportunities presenting themselves. It should be at least four times bigger at this stage, and there is insufficient equity and working capital to give the DOD or any large company confidence to award large contracts at the moment. Pro wiz alluded to this earlier.

IMO Cheney did not join to help them win over the DOD. He joined because the DOD need to point to a company with a board containing people like Cheney when they explain to politicians why they picked an Australian company as inevitably they now will.

Hence this step in the process which will mature in September of camouflaging the company as a U.S. company with a decent balance sheet and U.S. insto holders to make it easier to win business across various industries in the US. I suspect the Australian instos may miss out on AJX if this issue is purely US except for their US affiliates.

So I am expecting perhaps a capital restructuring now with a U.S. company formed to become the new controlling company, so it then moves to a dual listing by September like a mini BHP.

Occasionally I have been in at the ground floor of a major winner. For example I bought into Racal in the UK when Ernie Harrison got his first contracts in the seventies and they were capitalised at £20m and now Racal owns Vodaphone (last time I looked).

I also participated in the listing of Alan Sugar's company Amstrad in the seventies. Alan Sugar sold transistor radios at the time to the Japanese!

This company reminds me of them. It's poised to do impossibly well for such a small company. I may have joined on the first floor in terms of mkt cap, but $2bn may not be such a long way off.

And I need another Disallowed if not another 100 bagger as I've spent most of what I made on wine, boats, women and divorces. The rest I mostly wasted.

Gentlemen (and ladies?) we have taken our seats, the fire retardant (still old technology) curtain rises probably on Monday. Let the play begin....

And well done all the contributors to the debate so far. This is a hotcopper researched stock first and foremost.