Speculation from Joe

Joe from yahoo...long time SSN holder and political commentator.....

"For those who of you don't know much of the Persian Gulf geopolitical matters, here is a simplified version.

All the Sunni Arab oil kingdoms have their oil ports along the southern shore of the Gulf, within 100 miles from Iranian shore along the north side of the entire Gulf. The shipping route is narrow and close to the Iranian side, with the 25 mile wide Strait of Holmuz. The actual navigate able sea route in the Strait is only 5 mile wide, due to the vast shallow sand erosion (millions of years) along both shores. This 50 mile long 5 mile wide shipping route can be mined easily by Iran's dozens of mine layers.

The only deterrent are the US 5th fleet (only can operate in deep water) ships and Isralle air strikes. With the latest Russian air defense missiles and accurate long range cruise missile available now, The tension in the Gulf has been retched up to a level of pre-physical confrontation.

Iran depends on oil export for 95% of its incomes, while as a member of OPEC, Saudi Arabia and the oil kingdoms are blocking the price hike since last year. Iran is about to go broke but the trade sanction still limits its oil exports to the west. The quickest solution is to start some limited combat actions in the Strait and disrupt the oil kingdoms oil shipping route. Or Israle launch air strikes at Iranian nuclear facilities and the retarliation includes long range cruise missile strikes at the oil ports.

The result would be $100 plus oil prices. The small penny stock shale oil producers will double or triple their PPS. The Russian oil export and other OPEC members will benefit too, so are the big US oil producers (GOP backed). It's a win-win-win-....... situation for all oil producers, especially US.

All our 5th fleet has to do is to close its eyes for a day to let Iran lay some mines in the Strait, when the 1st oil tanker is sunk, everybody would be twice as rich."

certainly a lot of variables in the oil industry !

GLTA