TA - UTAD ? discussion, page-20

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mitta

22,593 Posts.

13/05/15

17:23

Post #: 15272890
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Originally posted by mitta ↑

As has been mentioned AJX appears as though it needs to be careful that it is not forming an 'Upthrust after distribution' pattern.

Now am ignoring all FA and with respect that this is a charting thread would expect the same. A comparison chart is one of AHZ. .. now this could be any other stock .. have witnessed the same happen (although slightly different forms) on many other stocks some being LNC ADO etc, so once again am only looking at the TA of the stock. AJX may not develop into this particular pattern but one needs to be watchful of this just in case.

AJX daily

View attachment 53997

AHZ weekly

AHZ post....

View attachment 54001

View attachment 54002

Is AJX at 'phase C' ?

Phase C — One of the ways phase C reveals itself after the standoff in phase B is by the sign of weakness (SOW). The SOW is usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and volume to the downside that seem to break the standoff in phase B the SOW may or may not “fall through the ice,” but the subsequent rally back to a “last point of supply” (LPSY), is usually unconvincing for the bullish case and likely to be accompanied by less spread and/or volume.

Last point of supply gives you your last opportunity to exit any remaining longs and your first inviting opportunity to exit any remaining longs and your first inviting opportunity to take a short position. An even better place would be on the rally that tests LPSY, because it may give more evidence (diminished spread and volume) and/or a more tightly defined danger point.

An upthrust is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above the resistance level of a trading range that quickly reverses itself and moves back into the trading range. An upthrust is a bull trap — it appears to signal a start of an uptrend but in reality marks the end of the up-move. The magnitude of the upthrust can be determined by the extent of the price move to new highs and the relative level of volume in that movement.

Phase C may also reveal itself by a pronounced move upward, breaking through the highs of the trading range. This is shown as an upthrust after distribution (UTAD). Like the terminal shakeout in the accumulation schematic, this gives a false impression of the direction of the market and allows further distribution at high prices to new buyers. It also results in weak holders of short positions surrendering their positions to stronger players just before the down-move begins. Should the move to new high ground be on increasing volume and relative narrowing spread, and price returns to the average level of closes of the TR, this would indicate lack of solid demand and confirm that the breakout to the upside did not indicate a TR of accumulation, but rather a formation of distribution ..... NOW this is the million dollar question ...

more can be read here ...

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Any failed attempt to now get back above the 'Ice' must certainly add the first nail in the coffin, which will obviously then confirm the UTAD phase

Last edited by mitta: 13/05/15

AJX Price at posting: 59.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
7 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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