Half of what you said comes from the historical numbers, the other half on projection is guess work. You have 3 types of investor/trader; Fundamentalist, Chartist or those in the middle.
If you use gold as a good example, fundamentals tell you the US and global economic implosion was averted post GFC by QE and the gold exponential rise is in anticipation to some form of more than normal inflation. It didn't happen so the next focus is impending stock market crash. If anyone did not scale out of their gold at the height believing the imminent crash then they are paying for that conviction. So I suppose Banksters capping gold etc is the view to continue to hold gold believing the good old days are just around the corner? Sure gold can come back sometime in the future but a matter of when. The opportunity cost of dogmatic thinking will cost the lost opportunities for the investment money to be working interim.
Personally, chart measure or 'indicate' the smart money. You bet against that trend at your own peril. Every so often bottom dwellers will pick a gem and forms the BBQ talk at parties. Most time it is the evil shorters or cappers?
I trade on the FX market and I can tell you that going against the trend or momentum does not pay in the long term unless one is very proactive in managing positions. One think I learned is that the market does not care what I think. Neither does it thinks that I know what tomorrow or the future will likely be. Just a game of chance that you try to put in your favor with the facts presented to you today. Tomorrow will unfold they way it does independent to what I think whatever research or guru have been commenting. That does not mean I don't gauge opinions. I listen to Peter Schiff weekly broadcast more of learning how the world works rather than believing in prophesy.
I still have gold exposure but like I said I don't buy the conspiracies and banksters capping or any other peripheral BS. It is what it is. If Ammageddon comes I would be stocking up on bake beans and beef jerky instead.
Every one is entitled to their opinion but don't get carried away from reality.
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