SEASONS OF GOLD by Doug Casey Chairman, CaseyResearch.com April 28, 2006
I doubt we'll see much of the traditional pullback this summer. But if it occurs, don't hesitate to use it to back up the truck for your favorite stocks. To help in that regard, we publish a quarterly Buy, Sell and Hold issue of the International Speculator, with updated recommendations on all the stocks we are following--now enhanced with our indications of "Best Buys" and analysis of company press releases on the Casey Research web site. And don't neglect adding to your hoard of physical gold coins.
Looking over our stocks, I have to say that there has never been, in my experience at least, a better slate of junior explorers to choose from.
That's thanks to many factors, including improvements in technology, the general lack of exploration over the last 30 years and the opening up of the ex-communist block to foreign investment. Toss in strong metals prices and talented management teams, and you have all the ingredients for significant discoveries.
While it's too early to tell whether we'll get a mega-discovery--of 10 million ounces or more—this year, the odds hugely favor a number of 1- to 3-million-ounce discoveries being made. As discussed at some length in IS XXVI, No. 12, December 2005, "How High Will Your Gold Shares Go?", the combination of much higher gold and silver prices, big discoveries and the near certainty of a collapsing dollar, will create an uber-bull... a once-in-a lifetime chance to make life-changing profits quickly.
I know you may find it hard to believe, but by the time this thing is over, your $.50 cent stocks will be trading for $5.00, and your $2.00 stocks, for $20. Or more. It's going to be at least as wild as the Internet market was in the late '90s.
Given that view, it's hard to see a summer pullback for gold, should there be one, in anything other than a positive light.
You can keep your powder dry for the next little while and look to pick stocks for less during dips. Or you can just keep buying, riding the tides and ignoring the dips altogether. That's the approach I'll be taking... show me a good company, run by good people, working a good project and selling at the right price, and I'm a buyer... though at this time of year, being patient to let the market come to you probably makes the most sense.
If there was one misstep you could make at this point, it would be to get scared off by the inevitable volatility and step aside until it gets "safe" to come back in. Too often that results in missing major up-moves. Trying to pick the tops or bottoms of any market is a fool's game.
A final thought: This market trend is solidly in motion. While it may periodically scare you as much as it thrills you, at no point doubt that it is your friend. Treat it accordingly and it will treat you well. In fact, even better than you likely imagine.
