Sintrate,
Here is what/when I think the upcoming newsflow will be, but as some are reliant on factors beyond KNL's control, some of these may be shuffled or delayed.
- soon (by say end June), ThyssenKrupp LOI conversion to binding agreement. As I understand it, it's basically done. I would suggest (but I don't know for sure) that the recent met work results were one of the boxes to be ticked off for TK, so they would be happy with that.
- Mid 2015, BFS
- Post BFS (say July/Aug) - Funding announcement. From my discussions with management, and from a previous announcement to the ASX, KNL have already received indication of funding terms, which are more favourable than was originally envisioned. Given my background (banker), what would normally happen here is that the lender would have discussions with the borrower, and even though nothing is "formal", they basically say "if you do a), b) and c), then we'll give you a facility with terms x) y) and z)". The a) b) and c) boxes to be ticked by KNL will be things like environmental/mining permits (almost complete), off-take with TK (almost complete), BFS (although the lender will already have done a preliminary analysis and has pretty much made their mind up about the project by now, even if it's not official), and a few other things. In other words, if KNL are confident in TK converting to a binding off-take (which they are) and of getting the other boxes ticked (which they are), then funding is as "in the bag" as it can be at this unofficial stage. I can say with certainty that no responsible board or CEO would be waiting until they had all their boxes ticked before having discussions with lenders, and I know our guys have been having discussions for some time (evidence the previous ASX announcement ). I'll also add that funding approval can surprise us with the timing. If you (in this case, the lender) have a lot of money, you can lend it to whoever you like, and waive whatever conditions you want. So, for example, if I had $50m in my pocket, there is nothing saying that I need to wait for an off-take before I give a funding facility. While I would suggest our funder is waiting for the TK off-take to be formalised, I'd also suggest that our funding is going to be less reliant on the BFS, but that's just my view, and not one that I've asked management about.
- Mining Approval (I can't remember the date on this one, however from a previous discussion with management, it's the environmental stuff that is the main sticking point, which we've already ticked off, and the balance mining application centres around community impact. Given the previous work KNL has been doing in the community (refer ASX announcements earlier this year and last year), including getting the president out for a day to discuss their projects, and we can be as confident as anyone that mining licence will be issued.
- Merelani - this is an unknown, but not really immediately a concern to hold up any process with Epanko. Tanz Govt took their time and delayed, and then the sale by Richland threw a late spanner in the works when everything was basically ticked off. As I understand it, new buyers of Tanzanite are on board, and everyone still wants the deal to be formalised. The Tanz Govt committee (I forget it's name, I don't know if it's STAMICO or another related committee) has 12 people that need to sit, and trying to get them all organised is proving painful. This could happen in 3 months, or it could suddenly be announced next week.
Irrespective of all the above dates, there is one thing I have stressed when I have queried management on timelines, and that is the production. Up until my last discussion a fortnight ago, everything is still on track for production as per the GANT chart (i.e. 2016), and management are committed to being one of the first into actual production (not counting VXL with their re-opened mine), if not the first. Conceivably, there is only 1 ASX company in Africa that can potential beat KNL into production, but I think we'll beat them. The other ones, for all their lofty ASX announcements, have way too much to do to get into production quickly (note that I'm not saying they won't ultimately get in production, but most just physically can't meet their own timelines for getting into production. Most of them, even some with their JORCs, aren't even close to having drilled out enough holes for mine design, and genuine reliable feasibilities for most companies are still a long way away).
Key re-rate events I see over the next 12 months are:
- Off-take announcement
- BFS
- Funding announcement
- Mining application approval
- Merelani
- Mining equipment ordered (this I see as a key only because many people don't consider a junior to be "real" until funders have authorised for equipment to be ordered and installed onsite)
- Mining plant commissioned, and first production
The share price will be a number of multiples of the current price by the time first production is announced, but I am certain it's going to be an interesting sp ride till then. I am confident enough to say we'll certainly be higher than we hit last year.
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