lessons learnt

Apologies for the long post
I believe that the events of the last couple of weeks are a good example of the way markets are driven by a huge dose of emotion with an unknown measure of games and manipulation.

A few core human emotions can play a significant role in our fortunes.   Greed and envy, hope and fear, power and trust.   We try to create rational frameworks for our decisions using different charting methods, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and anything else we can think of to try to reduce our risk and exposure. We look for experts, we listen to those we believe we can trust, we seek confirmation of our own opinions.  But nothing is secure in this game.  Not in the short term anyway.

Not that long ago AJX hit 80 on the promise it held.  Legislation that provided opportunities, connections, contacts, hot prospects and damn fine technology. Since then it has been substantially derisked with doors being opened across different markets, the scientific capability being adapted to different materials and better, deeper and stronger connections across government and target commercial sector targets.

In other words the strategy that NC set out has been played out with greater finesse and better results than any of us might dare to have hoped.  Not apparent in the financials because it has happened so quickly it’s beaten the formal reporting timelines.

Then in a flash it tumbled setting up a round of mayhem and fear.   Orchestrated and reactionary selling.   If the rumours are right spite served to drive the price down stimulating fear among the less “sophisticated”, maybe more trusting of so called experts, and possibly more easily spooked.  On the back of frustration and lack of understanding of the capital raising.  At the same time it created an opportunity to buy back at greatly reduced prices.  Maybe using power, fear, and greed in equal measure?  Others exercised pure greed – selling their shares to profit from the warrants  these players cared little for the impact on others for that is not in their game.

This combination, if it was what occurred, relied on those who lost faith and trust in the company.  Whose short terms anxieties and needs outweighed the hope that had driven the price to 80c.   Yet the fundamentals were better than they had ever been.  The future brighter. The dreams bigger.

Some lessons maybe in all this.

1.   Being an expert (as brokers might like to be seen) does not make you right. Either morally or in more analytical terms
2.    Remember to do your own research. Markets are fickle because they operate beyond a rational base.  Those playing the greed game are relying on some of you to panic.
3.    Faith and hope allow people to hang on through a crisis. Only time tells whether they were right and become the lucky ones that everyone talks about in the future.  That is part of the game.   Grit counts for something but it also changes the greed game.

I’d also see some lesson for alexium.

1.    You know it’s a dirty game on occasions so we expect you to use your knowledge to manage pricing, structure of capital raisings and the partners you choose- before the event not after.
2.    We’d like to think that this experience means that the increased liquidity you expect from launching onto the NYSE (MKT?) does not lead to the same wild ride that once again creates trust issues.
3.    If you don’t have a partner that takes care of that and instead allows crazy short term profit taking then we’d hope you’d have sorted that well before the ipo. We hope also that any partner who has done you no favours has been dealt with and puts your loyal followers at nothing more than normal risk.