I am posting after having held it before and having continued to follow the company.
As for Sundance, I'm not a bitter holder but if i had a half a billion and had to invest it in an IO mining project, SDL has what appears to be a much higher grade resource and i would put the $ with them over this any day.
.
I also held Hunnu Coal in the distant past and believe that gains i made there were very lucky timing. The acquirer would probably be pretty sour about that transaction right now.
I went into Haranga at a similar time when there was excessive hype around management.
Since then, this and other Garrison Capital backed companies have done pretty terribly by my reckoning.
Ones that i drew associations with some time ago include AVB (unfulfilled expectations), LIN (looking rubbish), WOF (poor performance), CCZ (almost gone), CRJ (gone).
The figures I used before were derived from the company presentation on 18/02/2014 (page 23) since which time I don't think that the company has done much to justify their salaries.
That presentation has a timeline which says they should be building the mine now and in production by 2016. Go figure!
I constructed a DCF using their inputs of a 12.5% discount rate, US131.5/t concentrate price, 16 year mine life, 3mtpa production rate, cash costs of $64 and the $562 million capex that they forecast to bring about their NPV.
Then I made my own adjustments to those figures given some changes to risk assumptions and cash costs,
When using cash costs of $70 (rather than their 64) and prices of $114, that is when my DCF calc came out as an NPV of zero.
My DCF calc is probably not worth the paper it is written on but i don't think theirs is either and that is probably why it isn't in any presentations I have seen lately.
Anyway, given current iron ore prices and the outlook, the inputs in their model from early 2014 are pretty unrealistic.
Sure, the Chinese might buy this but i don't think they will make a dime doing it.
Seriously happy to be proven wrong but without a takeover, I don't think that this is going anywhere .
All IMO DYOR
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- HAR
- Ann: Trading Halt
Ann: Trading Halt, page-6
Featured News
Add HAR (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
7.2¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $6.446M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 98984 | 7.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
7.2¢ | 72231 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 41842 | 0.070 |
1 | 295000 | 0.068 |
1 | 76711 | 0.067 |
1 | 15000 | 0.061 |
1 | 4000 | 0.060 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.072 | 72231 | 1 |
0.074 | 96752 | 1 |
0.077 | 23289 | 1 |
0.079 | 27777 | 1 |
0.080 | 50703 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.12pm 26/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
HAR (ASX) Chart |
Day chart unavailable