You do realize May-June is traditionally peak construction season in China, not Christmas ie. heart of winter? And you also realize that will coincide with peak supply as you alluded to, which means massive oversupply and hence lower IO prices?
Explains the heavy backwardation in IO markets and Aug IO futures is RMB 458, Sep is 416 and Jan is 389. Also the SGX IO swaps which are $53, 51 and 48 respectively bss 62.
FMG: Interview with Andrew Forrest, page-12
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