Fangk.,
I have seen this figure quite regularly. I just googled it and 4.5% was generally accepted. A bit lower than my 5% estimate.
And with reduced exploration capex this figure could go higher.
The USA has had a spurt with shale oil. This is now in decline. And unless the oil price goes up then world oil production goes into a decline.
And China and India are thirsting for oil.
