Excellent. Great looking (and robust) numbers, makes for a compelling investment case for the funds/instos. My key comments on the BFS (not in order of priority):
- EBITDA of $33.6m is in USD. In AUD (@ 75c) it’s $44.8m. With the AUD likely to drop further in coming year or so, potentially as low as 65c, the EBITDA will be rising to above $50m if the AUD drops to 67c or lower. Considering our current market cap, that's a massive number.
- OPEX/CAPEX is up, but so is basket price, so net result is an INCREASE IN GROSS MARGIN from $790 to $870 per tonne (when compared to the initial scoping study).
- OPEX will come down in 2 years once cheaper electricity kicks in (electricity cost will drop by more than 2/3 from 28.8c/kwh to 9 c/kwh). I’m going to seek confirmation of how much electricity makes in the current OPEX. Refer page 7.
- Mine life of 25 years is based on existing JORC “Measured” resource only, so there is plenty more high quality graphite to mine than just the BFS imposed mine-life term. This is stated at the bottom of page 9 (“At both deposits there isa substantial inferred resource that is a continuation of the Measured and Indicated resource that is not used in the study”
Most importantly, in investment terms, this rigorous document highlights that the annual EBITDA will be in excess of the current market cap. That won’t stay that way for very long, as the sp will grow to have a market cap that is a multiple of the EBITDA. With TK due to convert their LOI to binding in the near future, and finance to be soon too, this company is fast becoming relatively low risk, and this BFS all but seals the deal that we will make it into production. Now that the risk is demonstrably coming off, the instos/funds can start coming on.
Great work Kibaran management!!
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