SIR IGO

Speculation mounts re Sirius' Independence, page-136

First 136 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
JLB1865

583 Posts.

24/07/15

15:24

Post #: 15689651
Share

Originally posted by Package ↑

Your view would be correct if an assumption was made that the SIR share price would not have fallen if a bid was not made. My view is that this is an incorrect assumption. WSAs share price has fallen from $4.55 in February to $3.06 today, whereas IGO has fallen from $5.85 just before the announcement to $3.93 today. Both of these represent a 32% fall in their respective SPs. In other words, the IGO fall equals the SP fall of WSAs (albeit over a slightly shorter time frame), with WSA being the closest analogy to SIR on the market based on past share price comparisons.

The better assumption to make is that based on the WSA share price, it is likely that SIR would also have fallen by around the same level in the absence of the IGO bid. The SIR share price in February was between $2.60 and $3.10, meaning the current SIR share price could have been trading between $1.82 and $2.17 in the absence of the offer.

Speculation of course....but at least reasonably objective speculation.

It should be remembered that the premium being paid by IGO is still around 20% to the one month VWAP hare price of SIR just prior to the media speculation broke about the IGO takeover - which artificially drove the SIR SP up.

Plus, a tie up with IGO will provide a better spread of risk and a more secure balance sheet than is currently the case with SIR alone - including access to the 2015 dividend in September.

Expand

When you compare IGO and WSA since the start of the year, IGO has been the far better performer, in facts its troubles commenced the day of the offer for Sirius and have been unrelenting ever since.

I do agree that nothing is going to change until the Nickel price starts to lift but watching the short action around the crash of the Nickel price on WSA was bargain buying at its very best, if I wasn't so over exposed to IGO I would have been all over WSA.

SIR Price at posting: $3.11 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held

IGO Price at posting: $3.92 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

NYR

Nyrada rat study shows no genotoxicity in brain injury drug NYR-BI03

Arika to pump $3.2M into gold exploration at WA's Yundamindra following strong maiden program

RCE

Recce eyes Indonesia for novel anti-infective as Indo-Aus ties grow stronger

NEU

Neuren sees FDA greenlight for 3rd trial into children with Phelan-McDermid syndrome

CHM

Leukaemia patient shows complete response in Chimeric Therapeutics' latest trial

There are more pages in this discussion • 111 more messages in this thread...

First 136 Last

Add SIR (ASX) to my watchlist

Speculation mounts re Sirius' Independence, page-136

Top Stories

Nyrada rat study shows no genotoxicity in brain injury drug NYR-BI03

Arika to pump $3.2M into gold exploration at WA's Yundamindra following strong maiden program

Recce eyes Indonesia for novel anti-infective as Indo-Aus ties grow stronger

Neuren sees FDA greenlight for 3rd trial into children with Phelan-McDermid syndrome

Leukaemia patient shows complete response in Chimeric Therapeutics' latest trial

Featured News