To Break $1 the Q4 Production Report Will Need..., page-23

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Turnaround13

413 Posts.

24/07/15

20:56

Post #: 15691681
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Originally posted by cncventure ↑

I agree that Monday was a pivotal fall in the PoG and I think a lot of things conspired simultaneously to produce the degree of fall we saw (at least in USD terms).

That said, I have no idea where there PoG in USD or AUD terms will be in a week from now.

That said, over a 2 - 3 year time horizon I think that gold is far more likely to be higher than it is today (if you look at the price of gold in AUD terms over the last 40 years you'll see it is VERY consistently upwards over the medium/long term).

But more than just Australia, my belief is that with most major economies being highly indebted coupled with central bank mandates of needing to keep price stability (ie modest inflation) and maintain full employment then inevitably most central banks will be forced to maintain low/negative real interest policies (just as the RBA is finally moving towards now) to allow their economies to reduce these debt levels, but it's going to take FAR longer than most suspect and I think gold will outperform cash under these conditions.

So whilst it's a risky assumption to make, but all investments require assumptions, and the question becomes if the PoG (in AUD terms) was the same or higher than it is today is MML a good investment at its current share price?

For me, the answer is still yes.

Though that may not be true of all gold miners. MML is in a decent financial position with on debt and modest AISC compared to the rest of the industry (ie even if the PoG fell further it wouldn't suffer first).

Of course, if you had the long term view that gold was going below $900 and staying below that then you probably shouldn't own MML at any price.

HOWEVER I agree there is no need to catch a falling knife, so I'm personally waiting for the Q4 production report to be published and for gold to find some short term stability (which I think it's starting to do).

If the Q4 report is decent I'll be buying quite a bit more MML at these prices.

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IMHO would not buy until the downtrend ends.Look at PRU for instance they came out with an outstanding report this week and their sp got slammed with the other goldies.

MML Price at posting: 64.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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