smashed. 14c close, page-8

re: smashed. 14c close.wilf.db Unfortuantely guys I think we will see more downside if today was anything to go by but that bottom support cant be far away.

I think Wilf is pretty spot on with his thoughts.It would be nice to think that all the buying of late was long term support buying but to be quite honest with the volumes passing through it had to be getting "worked" by someone.

With the number on issue even the Far East report mentions the stock is ripe for trader manipulation.

I dont know that there will be any effect on the offtake deal at all to be quite honest.All the fundamentals remain the same.Smelters still require concentrate thats still in short supply,the price of zinc still seems to be finding support around the $1.50 mark and stockpile drawdown still indicates supply of the metal is in deficit.

The current inflationary scare and Chinese monetary tightening policy will have little effect on the growth curves of China and India.

China is soon to sign off on new iron ore contracts and will almost without doubt be paying another 15% on top of current,showing the need of China to continue to produce large amounts of steel.

Some articles out of India are indicating they are now having problems sourcing iron ore for several new large projects to be constructed near Orissa.Once again steel production expansion that many seem to be overlooking.

This base metals cycle is a long way from over.We may see these metals fall a bit more but thats only in response to a slow down in demand because they are just stupidly priced due to the fund involvement.

Apparently the copper purchasers association wants more meetings with the LME to no doubt express their concern once again at these high prices.Zinc seems to be particularly exposed to this reduction in demand as the stockpile decline has halved in the last month from its previous rate.Hopefully we will see a resumption of the strong demand now that prices have come off a little.However the important thing is that the drawdown continues,albeit slower.

The main problem that Aim may now face is a larger dilutionary effect due to the sp coming off so hard in the last week.With all the trader involvement its going to be hard to work the sp back towards the 20c mark again imo.

d.