Nearest the pin

Nearest the pin.

I have copied this from another stock thread with a few changes. Time to have a crack.

As time gets closer to the full year results being announced it’s a good time to get some bragging rights. Nearest the pin competition for Sales 2014/15. Numbers in millions but to one decimal point. (ie $178,400,000 to be shown as $178.4m). I will keep the spreadsheet. No need to justify your numbers but it would be nice if you did. As per the thread “SRX Valuation” http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/15430308/single my estimate is;

Sales Full Year: $181.0m

The winner will receive the CAFA medal. In honour of CAFA who has been a positive and insightful poster on SRX with numerous posts. The winner of the CAFA medal will be lauded throughout the land and HC as a person of knowledge, insight and intelligence.
The loser (Furthest from the pin) will receive the TeTeTe spoon. In honour of TeTeTe. I think this award speaks for itself.
Below is my post on the 8th of June justifying my number. As I said above it would be good for posters to justify their number but it is not a requirement. This is just a bit of fun.

Cheers
SLC

There have been some great threads and posts in the last couple of days so thanks to everyone who have posted. Restoring my faith in HC.
6186 - In regards to 2015 Revenue here is my logic. Significant difference in sales per dose by Region so I stuck my finger in the air and put the numbers in by Region. Americas is the engine room for SRX. I have increased this by 20.9 % - significantly down on the 1st half (28%) but not shabby. EMEA I have increased by 20.4% (28.1% 1st half) and Australia by 6.8% (10.8%). Overall this makes total dose sales of 10500 or 22.6% for the full year. I am aware 22% is the current running rate so I maybe overstating this by circa 55 doses but overall I think the 2nd half growth numbers are not over the top given the history of the company. I note with interest the 4th Qtr sales last year were up 27.1% - significantly up on the previous Qtr sales of 2014 – 18.2%, 18.7% and 4.0% respectively. Is there a seasonality factor that relates to the health industry in the US? Or SRX pushing sales before year end? I don’t know but I can’t help think that SRX are being conservative with only a 22% dosage increase in 2015 when the 1st half was up 26.3%.

On the dollars per dose it’s all about FX rates. In the US I have a 13% increase in $A (90c down to 78c). I have not factored in the effect of the sales price increase of $1000 per dose on list price as I am not close enough to the detail and timing on this. In Europe and Other I put a 5% increase in revenue per dose. Probably understating the GBP movement but overstating the Euro movement. Again not close enough to the detail to be really scientific but I believe I am not being too aggressive in this assumption. As for Aust no change in $s per dose.
So what does it all mean. A 2015 revenue of $181m on 10500 doses. The only guarantee I can make is my numbers will be wrong. Hopefully I am understating (I think June could be a very big month!) but I guess time will tell. Good luck to all holders.
Note: Full year by Region - Americas Revenue - $139,842k (7245 doses), EMA $34,897k (2375 doses) Australia $6,400k (880 doses). Sorry about the lack of tables - trouble posting for some reason.