LYC 1.86% $6.03 lynas rare earths limited

Mt Weld will be shut down soon says Ben Kramer-Miller, page-12

  1. 19,584 Posts.
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    A more recent effort from Ben just copied to SA: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3388795-what-the-rare-earth-industry-faces

    His own comment: "Author’s reply » I suspect neither of those companies can make money in the current environment. Lynas has only had 1 profitable quarter due to operational issues, falling REE prices, and over-exposure to La/Ce, and that was before the price decline, meaning that they probably can't make money. TAsman put out a PFS with prices 100%+ higher than today's, and unless they can get their capex and separation costs down this project doesn't work at today's prices.
    Tasman's chart is making a double bottom, though, and they do have plenty of Nd, Dy, Tb, Y, and Lu."

    What Ben fails to acknowledge is that if current prices persist the whole RE industry will shut down, and the investment spruikers along with it.

    Like most investment writers in the minor materials space he seems to have his canoe stuck firmly upstream with a fixation of what's in the ground, and how it's going to be extracted, rather than the end markets that pay the bills.

    The fact he promotes Y while denigrating La speaks volumes given the respective leverage to price recovery based on underlying demand.
 
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