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189

18/08/15

13:40

Post #: 15826639
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Originally posted by Caerus ↑

I’ve had a look at the pathfinder and made a few calls to a broker as well as a fund manager.
Here are some comments;

#Demand has been solid and the book may close early.
# China growth story and FTA.
Current sales to China is minimal (under 3%) with the greatest potential
# Direct peer blackmore 100% up in the last 6 months
# Blackmores has skyrocketed due to Chinese demand. Sales have increased 10X largely due to grey market sales.
# There is speculation that Blackmores will be included in the ASX200 and this has also driven the share price higher
# Peers - Blackmore at PE 35X
Bellamy’s at “Jupiters” PE
# Priced reasonably at 18-21X FY16 especially at the lower end.

Swisse Wellness another vitamin company is also up for sale. Have you heard what prices they will sell?
Suisse as also had huge demand from China.

Negatives
#There is concerns in China with regulatory changes which favors local vitamin co’s at the expenses of foreign vitamin co’s
# Competing against some large US co’s such as GNC and Vitamin shop with very deep pockets
# PE vendor selldown from 70% to 15% post IPO.
# 27.5m shares in escrow only 20% of total shares

Any comments welcome?

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Great analysis Bro. This will fly as its damn cheap at IPO
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