The market expects failure, liquidation.
Its trading at below cash holdings of $104M, below the CR cash/debt for equity swap raised of $87M, its even below its TH MC of $100M now, & at a third of the std PE ratio on free casflow earnings for Q1 that many of you posted today of $5M-$40M.
The market expects
- negative EPS
- massive cashburn Q4 follows into Q1
- no cashbuild & no cash increases
- no profits, large trading losses, cash evaporates to 0
- CR at 2c
- debt breaches
- IOP to stay low for years
- no takeover
- liquidation as the real value is well over $300M
The AR & Q4 report had several surprises that the market has ignored,
- contractor prepayments shoved into Q4 instead of Q1
- 1.9MT Q4 production, when market expected on 2 months shutdown a mere 1MT
- all 3 mines back into full & record production
- COP expected lower from $69UST to $50UST, no change to estimates
- profitable production right now
- WA Govt credits and royalty refunds etc, lower royalties & port costs
- Utah Point port must continue trading for WA to sell it as a going concern ie AGO is not going under, WA Govt just guaranteed it
- debt covenants not breached, well above the 2-1 default ratios,
- the massive asset writedowns did not, I repeat did not put AGO in breach of any debt covenants
The market has ignored all positives, and exacerbated all the negatives.
Normally this means a stock will sharply rebound as good news like positive cashflow or profit production or lower cop below $69ust is entirely unexpected.
I read that some of you think there will be a cashbuild of $5M to $40M...well that's a positive right? The market doesn't expect that right?
So the heading may be for Q1 report-
"Positive Cashflow, Cash at bank increases, costs reduced, profit margin better"
Analysts stunned by Q1, rerate imminent, misread the maths......
Im still waiting for the TA though to turn, the FA seems like a well engineered Q1 surprise at record low SP. Im waiting to see how low these manipulating buyers allow it to go on lower & lower volume.
Yes, I see blue you see red, I guess that's why I studied A+ mathematics, calculus, statistics & economics at UWA and you are a bogus unemployed disgruntled contractor timewasting downramper holding no shares with a claytons 2 week college course.
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