China has a debt crisis which is starting to hurt the country, this has resulted in them devaluing the currency to increase GDP instead of printing money.
China thinks that increasing GDP will increase profits from lost industries. This is flawed because the cost of re establishing in China will most likely out weigh the benefits. Also the cost of production is much lower in other countries. It would require China to damage it's economy in order to compete.
Australia has probably developed a complimentary currency with China to the extent it mirrors every move China makes in anticipation of the overall outcome. There is no need for long lag after China's currency moves.
Australia can almost react instantaneously due to the predictability of outcomes for Australia. There will be little effect in profits for the mining sector due to instantaneous reactions.
The damage for Australia is inflation that causes prices to rise and cause a severe slow down and recession.
Game over. External objectives vs internal objectives.
The old story of no win. The currency link with China has created a self destructive currency that reacts in a way that will probably create Australia's next recession.
I think Chinese Yuan Renminbi will cut its value by at least 70%. I cant talk about timing but I see this happening within 24 months.
china foreign exchange trap
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David DeTata, Managing Director
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Managing Director
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