"The Celgene Put", page-5

In the absence of much analysis of this Japanese opportunity - notwithstanding how important and seminal a moment many are saying this development is - there are many, myself included, who will find the posting of your assumptions are very useful. So thank you for doing so.

Completing the arithmetic on your behalf, utilising your assumptions, permits annual revenues attributable to MSB to be derived as follows:

25% of 4,000 Cases x $100k x 20% Royalty = $20m pa

While that is somewhat higher than the sorts of figures I've seen published by some analysts, it is not of entirely different orders of magnitude, meaning that your figures are credible, I think.


"Oh and thanks for defining quantum for me...most useful."

Except that - despite my doing so - you still didn't seem to understand the definition anyway.

For you offered you view on the Revenue part, but you are silent on the part that is far more important for valuation purposes, namely Profits.

Do you have a view of what costs MSB will incur (CoGS, distribution, administration, agency, compliance etc.) in relation to Japan, and therefore what profits MSB will generate in the process.


And finally, your being "interested in how my Celgene put is looking", I think you and I have totally different understandings of how derivatives work.

You see, the technical "Celgene put", as I described it, vested not with me, but with existing shareholders. For am not a beneficial owner of MSB shares; therefore I have no shares that I am able to exercise as options to Put at the implied strike price of $2.82, which is where Celgene bought in. So it was existing shareholders that I considered to effectively have that synthetic Put option.

And that is the point I was making at the time that I referred to the "Celgene Put"; that the share price has fallen well below that theoretical strike level, meaning the Celgene Put had, on fact, not held.

But how you came to understand that the "Celgene Put" was somehow mine to exercise (despite my not being a shareholder) is a bit bewildering.