2015 - per the 10K, page-11

Hi Rob,

Well I guess if that's what is important to you - the total oil produced for FY 16 to be greater than FY15 - then quite clearly production has increased. I'm more interested in interpreting the production trend and using the supplied forecast and it peaks (on TTM basis) in Jan '16 and is then in decline. BTW do our datapoints match up reasonably close? Both are opinions are correct. Both are valid. Each conveys a different meaning. Red flag is still the Enercom forecast for July and Aug doesn't seem all that accurate unless I am mistaken.

"Correct forecasts lead to investment gains – The easiest way to have a correct forecast is to extrapolate a trend and see it continue as expected." Howard Marks opines in "In ain't easy"

I would agree that a new investor is getting a free ride as compared to the longer term shareholder from the capital employed.

Value? It depends. "As Ben Graham pointed out, the day-to-day market isn’t a fundamental analyst; it’s a barometer of investor sentiment. You just can’t take it too seriously. Market participants have limited insight into what’s really happening in terms of fundamentals, and any intelligence that could be behind their buys and sells is obscured by their emotional swings." Sounds like a poster or two here.

I'm a loss to say what measurements are best to use to make a call on SSN. I mean if one used the popular EV/BOEPD multiple you would plug in EV at $27M and using TTM total of 665bopd and get $40,600 (I know I ignoring gas and NGLs). Now if the market is measurement of future value, the point in time FTM has 719 bopd (an INCREASE in production) and therefore our EV ought to be ~$29.17M and assuming no change in debt then the MC becomes $10.473M and SP is about 25% higher.

So the questions to ask oneself:
1. Is $40K a reasonable multiple to pay per flowing barrel? Is that to high, to low, in line with peers?
2. If in line with peers can you make an extrapolation to what their production trend is. This is tricky because you could simply say that SSN increased production YoY by ~10% and be accurate or you could say it is in decline and the Red Queen is in charge.
3. How is the multiple priced wrt to current oil price and what effect will a changing oil price have on the multiple?

There are just way to many screens we could discuss. In the end though, "value" has to be created somewhere in a fashion that someone is happy to pay up for.

I'm trying really hard to provide an objective evaluation/discussion of "fundamentals" without the emotion of having to substantiate a position (because I'm not a market participant in SSN).

And yes SSN is way better if compared to AKK, NSE, and some that have been erased.