Yes that's probably right but don't entirely discount informal or protest votes by Liberals voters. I live in Bennelong and some of the Libs I've spoken to, who are party members, are prepared to withhold their vote from the Libs just to see Malcolm lose. That means potentially 3 years of Labor with the hope that Morrison wins the following election.
This thinking would normally be considered treacherous but it seems clear Malcolm is so on the nose with so many Libs that a Lib govt must be sacrificed. After all, he did seek a safe Senate seat with Labor in the early 90's, according to Richo. Who knows where he really sits on the political spectrum? Planet Malcolm perhaps?