It was always my intention to warn holders of some of the other things that can happen rather than just focus on the positive. I got burnt badly a while ago by a miner so was hoping to pass on some of that learning here. No one likes losing money and I had wished someone had come to the forum and said the same to me. I hope I have challenged some of your own views here.
The biggest piece of advice I can give to anyone who wants to listen is run YOUR OWN NUMBERS on the business and don't take company numbers as gospel. The best way to do that is work the numbers back to the reported profit to make sure they balance. Companies who capitalize expenses including interest payments are a warning sign that the company may not be able to pay all its obligations if business conditions worsen. It can also reduce the COP because capitising expenses doesn't show in the COP breakdown. Also look at money spent on CAPEX vs what is budgeted by the company. If they don't marry then ask yourself why not.
Also don't always listen to some of the market pundits regarding which way commodity prices will go. I also subscribe to the resource speculator and admit it is easy to get caught up in some of the hype that surrounds a well written report like the eclipse or whatever it was called. He may very well be right about nickel in the long term (personally I believe he will be) but it is going the opposite way at the moment driven sharply by a slowing China and a increasing US dollar index (dxy). I remember reading an article about Iron ore written by the same author last year saying that iron ore price would bounce back. I remember thinking their is no way that will occur (due to new supply hitting the market) and I was right. Not saying I am an expert because I admit I am not, just try and make unbiased calls as if you actually don't hold even if you do. (This isn't a bag out of the resource speculator either, just an observation. I enjoy his reports etc hence my subscription. I have learned quite a bit about nickel companies from him).
I hope this helps. I also hope they can trade their way out with a short term injection of liquidity. It looks like a liquidity squeeze to me from the production issues in July. Im also wondering why they hold so much inventory and don't report that in their quarterly reports because it is difficult to determine whether their solvency issues is partly due to inventory holdings which are unsold.
A friend of mine holds this stock so I am hoping for everyone's sake ST liquidity is the issue here.
All the best.
MBN Price at posting:
8.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
