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29/09/15
20:40
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Originally posted by tomboy
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Possum30 posted the MBN website details of their 4 Year mine plan.
"2015 Four Year Mine Plan
In the second half of 2014 the company undertook a full review of the mine operation resulting in a new four year mine plan strategy commencing in 2015. Mirabela's 2015 mine plan focuses on streamlining operations and reducing production unit cost The mine plan targets optimising near-term cash flows given the low and volatile nickel price environment."
NOT VA!
According to this 4 year mine plan, they have NO intention of closing the mine, shuttering the mine, cutting capex and shutting the plant or deliveries whatsoever. They have no intention of sacking staff or cutting production. The plan states clearly they are increasing ST cashflows.
They could shut or slash the mining and continue the stockpiles and plant for 6 months at even much lower COP but they havent.
If faced with loss production or large capex cutting cash to 0, its prudent not to relist in February and even in May to advise this to the market and do what WSA PAN MCR have all done - reduce production, slash capex, slash 400 mine workers, stop mining altogether and use the 15,000T stockpiles, reduce the tailings dam requirement & not increase it!
So it doesnt make sense to
- issue guidance of 20,000T production by January or
- 18,000T for 2015,
- 2015 sales fully committed if the sales are not fully committed and not being paid for
- continue mining at record levels causing higher capex and higher staff wages
- keep incurring capex on the tailings dam if you dont have the cash left to spend the capex on it
- if your income NP doesnt exceed your expenses/COP as we were advised it did.
- not sacking 400 workers for 5 months to Dec which would result in COP drop to US$1.50uslb yet sales would still proceed from the stockpiles
For a safe and stable MBN that is prudent and financially responsible they spent their last pennys like a gambler on a death wish or a drunken sailor.
They have NO intention of stopping this monster mine or its capex, tailings dam or transport of deliveries. Even in 2014 they had no such intention. This is a positive for all of us. This is why it doesnt make sense.
Even if they recap, relist and say sorry, all stakeholders have class action legal rights and losses that have been created thereby. The best thing they can do is to shut the mining and sack 400 staff, overthrow the govt, make the BRL go to 5.00, continue the stockpile deliveries for 5 months...but they wont! WHY?
Why are they so intent on incurring such large capex beyond announced and reducing their cash to 0? It doesnt make sense.
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The NP collapsed. Pure and simple. Last week they ran out of the $10m cash they had at the end of July, and had no option but to call in the administrators. Presumably expecting enough to come in to pay another weeks wages, but they are on reduced mining anyway. They saw it coming - and told everyone, but you were too blinded by belief to understand what the Q1 financials announcement meant.
It all makes perfect sense, if only you would see it. The NP has always been stated by the company to be a key factor for survival. They did everything else they could to ride out the downturn by cost cutting but it wasn't enough. Low grade mines will always be the first to go as the price drops. As for the CAPEX, they were only doing the minimum they had to. You can't avoid it all.