You are allowed to change you mind. I do all the time, particularly when there is new information.
At a glance, I am not sure that I buy the idea that a Glencore is the next Lehmans Bros. This is media hypobole
Glencore's balance sheet:
Glencore has gearing at about 2:1, and a narrow (compared to Lehman) counterparty profile. They should survive (which makes the Lehman comparison moot).
Lehman Bros was an investment bank with gearing of 37:1 and trillions in outstanding derivative contracts and tens of thousands of counterparties. So their balance sheet was much more vulnerable.
I don't see falling commodity prices as a like systemic threat to falling housing prices in 2007-8. Yes. The miners get screwed, but their customers benefit. There were no such winners in the housing market in 2008.
