While anything is possible, I think the probability that Republic has bought on behalf of a bidder or that Republic bids itself at 0.01%.
Whereas I put the probability of BRL becoming insolvent or having to do a rescue capital raising at a major discount at 90%+ (I have written numerous posts on why and I focus on the facts).
BRL is different to most other coal stocks in that it is burning cash everyday due to its very poor thermal coal assets. It has already run out of cash and has had to sell assets to stay solvent. Given a lot of the assets are secured against bank loans, it won't be able to do this for much longer.
The downside from here is still 100%. If I was long, I would be praying for a big rallying the coking coal price so BRL can do a rescue raising at higher than 1.4 cents.
BRL Price at posting:
1.4¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
