I disagree that BRL is in this position because of falling coal prices (I have written why a number of times - but basically it is because everything was written off assuming $175 coking coal price and the domestic contracts don't have much/if any linkage to the international coal price). The stock would be down given the falling coal price (sentiment driven), but unlikely anywhere near this far if management hadn't done what they did.
In terms of my motivation on writing here – that is a very good question. Basically BRL had been a massive stuff up for me. I was long it back in 2010-2012. I made a lot then lost pretty much what I made (mostly pa, some in the fund. Not a big dollar loss, but a very big % loss from the top to when I exited c.$0.40). My whole investment in BRL was clouded by so many issues (mostly around the mental biases). While I had been in the investment game for while at that point, I hadn't invested in resources much. In any event, I should have known better.
I have worked for years for a couple of big US and Asian hedge funds (and currently work for a very large hedge fund (Asian office) with China, India, ASEAN being a key focus - for what it’s worth, in my view steel demand has peaked and FAI is going to keep slowing a lot in China). I have absolutely no position in BRL, but continue to follow it in some detail simply to ensure that I learn everything I can from this stuff up.
I am very focused on collecting the facts, analyzing the facts, then drawing a reasonable conclusion in an unemotional manner. I am more than happy to change my view if the facts change or if I have made an error in collecting or analyzing the facts. But in my view the facts haven't changed and actually continue to get worse. I am not interested in what other investors are doing, narrow anecdotes, making assumptions based on very little or interpreting information via 'rose coloured glasses' (all of which are very common investment mistakes and all of which I have made but am very focused on not making going forward – but I am sure I will still make them).
As mentioned I think BRL is different to other small cap coal stocks (in terms of having a punt on coal prices), because it is burning cash every day. That said, I won’t short it down here. We will see I guess.
But as you implied, there is very little point me posting on BRL given I have no position in it and will likely never take a position again, so I should really let it go. So, I will stop posting on it going forward. Good luck to all.
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Last
73.5¢ |
Change
0.005(0.68%) |
Mkt cap ! $140.6M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
70.5¢ | 73.5¢ | 70.5¢ | $218.2K | 299.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 80000 | 73.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
73.5¢ | 901 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 80000 | 0.730 |
1 | 9500 | 0.725 |
1 | 7200 | 0.700 |
1 | 1460 | 0.685 |
1 | 4000 | 0.680 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.735 | 901 | 1 |
0.740 | 5258 | 2 |
0.790 | 50000 | 1 |
0.800 | 28279 | 1 |
0.815 | 6538 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 04/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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BRL (ASX) Chart |