Actually Timber, they have been improving yet the market seems to still throw taper tantrums, which can be misleading when glossing over the market's movements. But you did answer your own question when you linked unemployment to interest rates, as yes unemployment is a figure the fed looks at when deciding on monetary policy. I see the current figure of 5.1 as sufficient to warrant an increase should inflation permit. With core inflation sitting on 1.9, which is 0.1 short of the target, we may soon find out if the economy is healthy and ready for normalization. But it goes a bit deeper than that. Quantitative easing was meant to jump start the economy. With deficit spending ceasing, increases in unemployment would be a sure fire sign to see whether QE is only effective while it is undertaken or if it does in fact jump start the economy in a sustainable way.
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