Methanol, page-8

Hi Adl,

From the recently released Annual Report:

"Progress in relation to the Tassie Shoal Projects continues to be incremental, and the timeline to project delivery can’t be reasonably predicted. An introductory meeting was held between MEO, a potential equity partner of the Tassie Shoal Methanol Projects and the Operator of the Evans Shoal joint venture. The potential equity partner outlined to the Operator its potentially pivotal role in aggregating international equity investment in the midstream methanol production facility. This was an encouraging step, but a subsequent meeting with the Evans Shoal joint venture has been delayed. MEO continues to have strong interest from multiple parties to participate in the Tassie Shoals Projects provided that gas supply can be secured."

Any transaction involving ES purchase, would have to involve TSMP option being secured. Given the "enabler impact" of TSMP in unlocking $2 billion + in capex savings, even the most opportunistic deal could something like this.

RichDaddyAsiaCo acquires Shell's interest in TSMP for $250 million, and secured rights to acquire TSMP for $25 million upfront cash, plus FID kickers.

Or

RichDaddyAsiaCo acquires Shell's interest, then forms a JV with MEO to setup TSMP-midstreamCo, where MEO receives an upfront fee of say $10 million AND a 20% working interest in the project, with the first $100 million in MEO's WI being carried by RichDaddyAsiaCo.

Either option would see MEO realistically trade at 10 - 20c+, depending on timelines, commitments and the likelihood of MEO being able to share in the value TSMP creates.

Either way, I agree that many MEO holders are holding from 20c+ so whilst there are invariably many stale bulls on the registry, a blockbuster deal 15years in the making could change things overnight.

With the MC backed by 40% cash, having bagged Cuba and POO stabilising, and M&A in the sector set to soar, with PS's industry cred, something good has to happen, I hope!


On the Puka front, MEO gives Shannon a COS of 16%, so why the hell would we spend $2 million (40% of our cash in hand) to test this when there is an 84% chance we'll be left empty handed? We were;t willing to stump up $500k to take up the remaining 70%, so spending $2 million for a 16% chance of finding 30% of 5mmbo is a complete waste of time and money!