Ok so i see what you are saying here and whilst I understand that Glencore may be too big to care too much about whether they book a loss on AMI or not, there are other shareholders in AMI that actually do care about the future of AMI. If the Glencore position is simply to walk away from it all then I think this is alternative to the scenario you paint.
Alternative scenario to Glencore losing the court case, converting part of their debt, taking control and selling the asset to recover their remaining outstanding debt:
1. Court case goes the way of AMI. This means that Glencore converts facility A and B and end up with about 45% of AMI whilst Pacific Road and others are diluted by the same amount.
2. Pacific Road and Pybar exercise their 50m options at 1.25c each to raise $6.25m. The exercise of the options dilutes Glencore down by about 7.5%
3. AMI announce a rights issue to raise enough money to pay out Glencore in full. If it was me I would do a 1 for 1 issue at 10 cents per share and make it non-renouncable with Pacific Road and Pybar underwriting ~60% (the portion that Glencore don't own).
3.a Glencore take up their rights at 10cents: Glencore will have about 300m shares and if they took up their rights then they can be paid any outstanding amount when it falls due by using the funds they inject into AMI. Under this scenario, Glencore remain the dominant shareholders but are owed no money at all.
3.b Glencore do not take up their rights: Assuming most existing shareholders take up their rights then Glencore are diluted down to approximately 25%. The funds raised from the rights issue and the options exercised by Pacific Road and Pybar will more than cover outstanding Glencore debt when it becomes due. Under this scenario, Glencore are in a locked in minority position and are owed no money at all.
The above is but one example of what could happen. Pacific Road are no push overs and there is enough shareholder support to ensure that Glencore don't get to play bully and walk away unscathed.
In the absence of a court ruling that goes the way of Glencore, I just can't see how they can have their way unfettered here. As I have said in other posts on this saga, it will come down the court decision. If it goes the way of AMI...Glencore are down for the count on this one and their options are either to put more money in or end up in a non controlling position post a rights issue.
AMI Price at posting:
4.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)