morning orson,
whilst I agree in theory and probably in actuality re. the DoD announcement (and I also think it could have been clearer in message - like NC's crystal clear version that came out in an interview days later) -
I remain confused about the non reaction of the SP to the 4C.
Now, of course financial reports can sometimes not effect a stock and sometimes they can - greatly.
This particular 4C I thought was going to be watched with intense interest - because it was either going to be complete crap - in which case Nick's and AJX's cred would have gone out the window - or it was going to be great - which it was - and, I thought that the SP would have moved for a host of emotional and real reasons -- eg. relief, finally got proof of income, expectation of future growth - etc etc.
But, what happened was precisely nothing - it was like everyone had a dose of the runs and went to the dunny for days --- so, even when the anns. knocked at the door - it found no one at home.
Now - I can understand why no OS (moreso US) buyers came in - as I see right now as well - even though there is a whole pack of reasons to get into AJX if you are American - there are also a whole stack of reasons to wait until it is listed in the US.
One of which is the Fed - if they indeed do raise in Dec. - then, by rights, the US dollar should strengthen - which would be wonderful for us Aussies holding Aussie AJX stock (income in US dollars) - but, could well be disastrous for US players as unless they have a currency hedge in place for insurance ----- will take a haircut.
However - none of those reasons extend to Australian punters - and, I found their disinterest amazing. Some friends here have suggested some reasons to me - and, I agree with them - one said that people may find Ajx now stale - and, that is possible, another is that we are conservative and short term - that is certainly true - there are several other reasons -- BUT - even with all of them ----- for that 4C to be released and basically - literally no volume to speak of - well????
What will be interesting is when Nick releases more news - that isn't expected - which, to me - he is flagging, but there is certainly nothing out there in public that is clear without trying to understand what he is really saying beyond surface words ---
there are a couple of things - but a great example to me is the 'not science fiction' comment.
There is a crystal clear message there - and ? who was it - splittie I think - who came out with what I thought was very good thinking - indeed, I would put money on it - well, I have put money on it really.
To me - that particular example is only a matter of who it is and when Nick will release - and, of course how interesting the ann. will be - but, if the name of Airbus or Boeing or one of the military manufacturers is dropped - then boy,
surely, an ann. like that out of the blue would put a rocket under the SP.
I agree with your thoughts on the DoD movements and positioning - and, I guess that dropping the name of Tempur will have the same effect - after all - it is the second worst kept secret in New York - but, something from out of nowhere? Well - nothing would surprise me now - but, I think I would go with Nicks feeling -- 'if the market didn't like an ann. of a major airplane manufacturer taking on Ajx in some way - tests or contracts - then, I would flush my head down the dunny'
Have a great day all ---
oh, and, I have been watching closely --
I have got you on my list for next time we meet Brad - I have a set of drums on order for xmas for your family
BTW - hope your family is well and happy.
Pinto
(20min delay)