re: trouble at mill: us housing next to feel the h June 20:
Int. rates: housing: consumption: gdp: stagflation
I think we need another 2 months to gauge the profound effect of any interest rates rises.
Bernie is giving priority to curbing inflation, which at the true rate is rising at 8-10% per year.
The FED's mistake was that their rate rises were at the back of the inflation curve, ie inflation was too far ahead of interest rates. That would'nt have mattered that much if inflation was running towards zero, but it did'nt.
Housing is already sensitized to previous rates and the fanciful mortgage instruments, eg ARM will have its influence felt shortly.
Dump another 0.5%-1.5% on top of that and housing inventories will rise sky high; there will be protests galore and house prices falls will accelerate.
This will crimp consumption which is 70% of GDP and lo and behold, stagflation is becoming serious.
Unfortunately, to really cut inflation, one needs a rise of about 2.5-3% at least, and that is a tall order.
If only the FED would stop creating credit and increase the money supply. Unfortunately, huge debts need to be monetized so inflation is to continue.
Incomes are well behind inflation, saving is below zero and manufacturing is also low. The current 9% unemployment is to rise (Some say it is higher).
So while we are waiting, a powerful coctail of angst, cheating and incompetence by the FED and Treasury is being brewed and we are not even talking about geopolitics, oil and resources.
The horses of the Apocalypse will ride again!
Fortunately, I have an anchor: Gold.
Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.
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