AVECHO BIOTECHNOLOGY LIMITED (ASX:AVE) - Ann: Phosphagenics Investor presentation - Australian Roadshow, page-68 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by Southoz ↑

Thats funny Turps ... I was just going to say the opposite.

Starting with the very poignant observation in these threads that “ ... then see the happiness of all those that have made a quick 30% from 1.4 while your still well in the red / words can't describe the feeling”.

POH is trading at around cash backing. The majority of that cash was raised from last capital raising ($19m at 8 cents a share) for the purpose of conducting a P2 in the US of a systemic oxym patch.

At the time of the capital raising investors believed that the patch was good to go having demonstrated therapeutic levels of oxym in the blood stream. According to Rosen this was as if the patch had already passed P2 testing.

As it turned out, with HC posters naturally the last to know, the patch was not good to go. It needed to be fixed and then go back to P1.

Suffice to say every single investor at 8 cents for $19m (and the $24m investors prior to that) would love to get their money back on the idea that they were misled. But POH are not offering refunds.

If they did they would be broke. Because at cash backing POH are in violation of the first rule of biospecs which is to have a story that enables you to raise money.

So in effect it really is free money from the pockets of the old investor to the new. With one little catch for the new investor. You have to believe in a fairy story.

Fortunately there lots of these.

One is that management are super heros that will re-create the blue sky story of a systemic opioid patch. Another is the winning cross lotto type idea that POH are about to sign a mega deal with someone important for lots of money any day. Alternatively that oxyc trial results will ignite the share price or that Meller has mates with big cheques books back at P&G.
These stories are really just little crutches that help us throw caution to the wind so that we can gamble in a rigged game with good money hard earnt.

My own particular “POH fairy story” is based on something that GC observed a few months ago. That the sell off was brutal and spiteful. Exactly right but very perplexing so.

From 8 cents to 5 cents brutal. At 5 cents many long term POH retail investors thought fair suck of the sauce bottle and that POH was now in over-sold territory. Then it became spiteful as POH fell to cash backing.

Why? Well - simply a changing of the guard. Several large old POH holdings have wanted out quickly. The ground was ill prepared for this exit. For a decade POH has raised money from the market way too easily. Esra batted her eyelids and Rosen gave Churchilian speeches.

But Esra is in jail with Rosen shown to be a poor judge of character and a failed commercialisation strategy where sales of TMP financed the development of a systemic patch.

So the trouble was no-one believed anyone was going to fight them on them beaches anymore.Remember “licence licence licence”; it all looked ridiculous.

Hence the slaughter of a large army of small retail investors – simply cannon fodder; collateral damage.

Fast forward to now. The day trader types are injecting some colour and movement but in the process obscuring the fundamentals; and annoying everyone. But the truth is HC red hearts are highly evolved social media creatures very sensitive to market money movements in speculative shares.

And so funnily enough it is the fundamentals that obscure the manipulation of speculative shares as the price moves closer or further way (depending on your position and when it was taken (old or new money)) from true value.

Arguably the HC red heart is the real hero not the silly fundamentalist.

Where is that true value? On my story probably 5 cents. But HC hot air has the potential for better than this.

One thing though, with Playez in mind here. In the asylum the more bizarre the story the better. But it doesn’t seem altogether sensible to invest on the basis on stories (no matter how plausible) from bedlam.

Hopefully someone will come along with a more palatable version of a fundamental story. My idea that we are all simply just cannon fodder doesn’t seem like a great outlook to have on life.

Expand

.. I meant in the short term southoz..a lot of the sellers were buyers yesterday, and a lot of the buyers are sellers..if you get my drift

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Last 0.2¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $6.338M

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