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forrestfield

12,115 Posts.

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07/11/15

12:31

Post #: 16345402
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Originally posted by forrestfield ↑

@TraderGT Amazing job with weekly data... it has made my life so easy to compare the progress on weekly basis... have to admit that SP disappointed me but the progress has been amazingly refreshing.

Also quarterly 4c helped a lot. I now understand that we need another 500k of revenue per quarter to be breakeven and anything above will saw us generating profits.

Putting this in perspective, staff cost will remain the same along with minimum increase to other working capital. So it will have minimum effect on growth of the business within a minimum growth scale... I would not mind the increased costs when the growth increases substantially.

Now, comparing data between end of September and end of October/early November, we have seen 18% increase in rented cars. Ignoring other dynamics, this simply means 18% revenue increase.... so lets be conservative and call it 15% revenue increase in October. We also know the trend has been continuous since May (as GT only started to compile the data from May) which should continue in November and December and January... In fact, I am hoping speedy growth due to festive season and the fast spreading of word of mouth... the fasted and cheapest marketing tool...

Once again let's be conservative and assume that we see 10% growth in November which means 13 more cars rented by end of November reaching to a total of 147.

Similar increase in December with almost 160 cars rented by end of December. This means an overall increase of 46 cars in this quarter...

Now this will generate added revenue like this (ignoring other matrix)

October added revenue based on 130 cars on average... 15% growth as per our data... conservative figure will be 50k added revenue.

November - added 10% on top. Let's be conservative again and call it overall 20% growth... means 70k in revenues...

December - added 10% growth but lets be really conservative and add only 5% growth bringing it to total 25%. Means another 90k revenues...

Increasing revenue by 210k this quarter... reducing our deficit by almost 42%...

In a nutshell, we are two quarters away to be break even.. and this is a conservative guess...

A deal with a fleet manager or two might increase our revenues nicely... also caravans marketing campaign will have its impact on revenues... so fingers cross that this growth remains constant... to be honest, I don't see a reason why not...

Cheers and all the best

Expand

Forgot to add couple of points:
1. With increased revenues, cash burn rate decreases. This means with 800k cash, we should be fine this quarter and the next. This is being conservative and keeping in mind the similar progress being made by cl8... no deals no substantial increase in sales... however, I think we might see 300 -350k burn rate this quarter and around 150k burn rate next quarter with being breakeven in June quarter.

2. In last few months, we have seen 100% increase in rented cars number. If we see the same from now onwards in next few months, we should be breakeven by end of March which also fits with above estimates...

Next few weeks are goin to be excited...

Also if anyone interested, you should read @pilsner (the charts wizard) comments at STT... you will be surprised how his time frames are aligning with excellent FA of this company.

All the best

Last edited by forrestfield: 07/11/15

CL8 Price at posting: 2.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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