Zinc Rallies, page-17

Yes, I have been a holder and since I have not kept up with the intricate details of events unfolding with the developments.

It is my understanding that Glencore was a big Zinc bull having many fingers in man pies. Beside owner producer, it JVed with Blackthorn Res in Zambia but that one also turned sour. They initially took a big stake pre-GFC in IBG and I think another stake a few years later (?). Then out came Nystar (largest Zinc producer) coming in. 3 way relationship as GC is a big holder of Nystar stock and also mutual holder of IBG potentially a world class ore body. NFC was the last player in this 3 way tie up. AFAIK NFC will underwrite the project but I am not sure if this includes 100% funding through Chinese Bank. GC is not a player with interest just sitting back making a free ride from the Chinese. I am sure they (GC) came on board for security of supply sinc they are very large Zinc dealer ditto Nystar being a consumer.

I will let you work it out if they will just let the Chinese control the production because they underwrote the funding. Will the Chinese give these 2 a free ride free from participating in some kind of funding?

Why has it taken so long for the BFS to come out? Why has the application for ML taken so long? This from a country begging for financial independence from Denmark.

For further contemplation if the get ML tomorrow, what are the options for the funding? If USD debt then you look at production in USD quotes. Cost will be in USD. Does not really matter what the AUD component does. If they can't make enough margin to sustain the USD debt then that will be a problem. All hangs on where POZ will go? I am assuming USD debt, alternately they could get funding from Oz banks. Forget raising capital from paper equities through dillution coz MC $25M is not going to cut it.

These were going through my mind as price started the breakout last year and I was waiting for a pull back to join. However I recalled I saw a very bearish daily or weekly signal and I remember posting up that chart and I lost interest soon after.

The zinc stock at LME is a very misleading indicator because players also warehouse around the globe to cuts holding cost. I am not familiar exactly with the mechanics but as the stockpile at LME fell it is often hit with some one dumping stockpile in there.

However if POZ can resume it reversal and become bullish then these fears of mine would dissipate in an instant. Since pre-GFC massive exponential POZ rally, it went sizeways ever since.

I don't mean to downramp but these are the reasons I held back and I am glad I was not convicted enough to take a punt. If you think I am downramping to get in at a good price then you can refer to all my post and see I have not changed my tune.