There is one flaw in that thesis. The people moving into Europe are migrants, not refugees. These people aren't fleeing war, they are being lured by promises of jobs and housing. If the weather becomes inhospitable they will wait for a change of seasons. Additionally, 75% of these migrants are prime aged males in peek physical condition.
People fleeing Syria etc find refuge in the numerous refugee camps in the ME. When people move from the camps in search of a better life they become migrants.
