Good value at $1?, page-44

DCG is currently around $1/share or $150m market cap and has been trading at a multiple of about 4 which is low but not unusual for the sector at this stage.

It has cash of say $50m or about 30 cents a share.

At 69% occupancy last year, the village made NPAT of $15m. They are saying occupancy is very low now, let's say 25%, or about one third of FY15. This would suggest $5m however the margins will reduce as a percentage of the lower occupancy, as the percentage of fixed costs rises. So let's say it makes $3m NPAT this year.

Carry value of the village is meaningless. They admit they can't sell it and cancelled the sale process.

As for construction, they forecast $300m to $350m at lower margins than last year (13%). Let's say $325m @ 10% or $32.5m.

Their overheads last year were $45m. They're targeting a $15m to $25m reduction "by FY17". Let's say they've already reduced overheads by $15m, therefore overheads are $30m.

Construction therefore makes NPAT of $2.5m x 70% = $1.75m.

FY16 NPAT looks like $4.75m. At a multiple of 4 that's around $20m or 15 cents/share. Add in the cash and you're at 35 cents a share.

I think 82 cents is being generous.