Usman1, to address a couple of your concerns:
Execution is critical in any business, but perhaps more so in this one because there are many moving parts. I take heart from the fact that, while start-ups often offer excuses for missing deadlines or forecasts in the early days, BFC has outperformed in its first few months.
From what I read in the prospectus, taking minority stakes was a deliberate strategy to keep the existing owners incentivised, increasing the chances of successful business sales down the track - the ultimate strategy for each investee company. In the meantime, BFC's 'insurance' if you like against poor performance of the investee companies is that they have influence via a member on the Board of each (1 of 3, with unanimous decisions required).
Regarding supply, there seems to be a benefit to investee companies of selling via BFC's international networks - higher prices - which is a win for both investee companies and BFC. With production rising strongly in a couple of divisions already, and with new product lines coming to market, perhaps there'll be plenty to keep all markets happy anyway.
In addition to the existing product lines, their many developments, including the Oziris app, infant formula, and natural ingredients to replace salt, sugar and fat in processed foods, add blue sky.
Based on the AGM presentation, BFC is ahead of prospectus forecasts. This points to a P/E less than 12 and a yield of better than 4% (partially franked) - attractive to me. But as we know, there are no guarantees in this game and risks remain (refer to prospectus for a full list) - it's a matter of whether you think the potential reward is worth the risk.
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