STO 0.58% $6.92 santos limited

What happened at close?, page-37

  1. 420 Posts.
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    Me is long STO but not confident in the next 6 months ....

    The share price has been pushed low (below relative peer performance) as the retail bookbuild participants have decide how many they are willing to buy at (say) $3.75 in the bookbuild. To give them a decent return for a months risk (say 8%), they would have needed to short at no lower than about $4.00 per share. This is what they have done, keep the price about $4.

    If the bookbuild price is above $3.85 then the shorters profit will be eaten into.

    They could be wrong of course, but I doubt that the retail shortfall will be less than 40% and therefore the shorters/underwriters should be feeling pretty comfortable now.

    The next issue is whether the shortfall is more than 40%. If so, then there will be an overhang in the market & subdue any price growth in the short/medium term.

    All IMHO
 
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