Personal View

I have to confess,

I am looking at AZZ again, given it can be bought for A$0.34 a share as AZZEF.

There are many things that need to be taken into consideration, when trying to work out the risk/reward odds.

The Breitburn situation is clearly a new negative.

Does it give the potential buyer more leverage over Antares?
probably yes, on the otherhand it eliminates escape routes that Antares might have been considering thus simplifying the problem.

They have to find A$24M for the end of March plus A$1M in interest payments.

The only way to do that is to sell one or both properties.

The length of extension the buyer is after is going to be key, because the company will need to have some sort of back-up plan in place to ensure a sale of some sort by then. As I just don't see those noteholders accepting a further delay on repayment, given the lack of liquid assets etc (to pay the interest, nevermind the capital).

The value of the properties declines all the time, because the leases get closer to expiry with each passing day and very little of the 20,000 acres are actually held by production. So a lot of cap-ex is required going forward.

So I'm sure they'll want to keep this extension to a minimum.

They might even try and sell 10% of each property to the potential buyer upfront right now. With the rest to come following shareholder approval. That would certainly relieve the strain.

Lets see what this next update brings us.

Then it will be time to either buy AZZEF or avoid it like the plague until the $$$ are in Antares actual bank account.

In the meantime I hope some of you looked into AXT and are reaping the rewards (both past & to come following today's news).

LOTM