1PG is a spivvy concept stock. This is no different to the spivvy tech stocks in the late 1990s and the mining stocks in 2005-2008, 2009-2011 etc. There is no manipulation (I love how the bulls always say that when their darling stock falls!!!) and maybe this is a great buying opportunity or maybe it isn't. But there is definitely no evidence to say it is a great buying opportunity and that call certainly isn't based on earning and cashfow.
There is absolutely nothing to say whether this is worth $1bn or the few million they paid for the original assets or less.
What we know for sure is - i) management are highly promotional, ii) management are paying themselves a lot in terms of options etc, iii) the company does not earn anything, iv) there are a lot of people who seem to believe this is the next Linkedin/big thing, v) a lot needs to go right to justify the current valuation (even after the selloff), vi) !PG has missed pretty much every key target they have promised, vii) they are now looking for the new suckers i.e. promoting more in the US (I would not be surprised if the stock falls much more then they will start talking about listing on another exchange - BTW - why are they listed in Oz - their reasoning for this is rubbish). Sound familiar?? I remember the tech boom well, but for slightly younger people, does this sound like most mining stocks in 2008 or 2011??
Maybe Joanna is slightly more attractive than the fat mining people from Perth, speaks with an American accent and talks about silicon valley, but if you cut through it all, she is doing pretty much the same as the mining guys from Perth. Selling a dream.
Also, just ignoring the actual fundamentals (or lack thereof other than a lot of hype) the technicals look really bad to me - the stock has topped (between $4-5 for 2-3 months), broken down, retested $4 and has made a new low (this is a classic pattern). To me this chart looks really bad and the fundamentals are weak (as with most concept stocks, it sounds good today and may be massive tomorrow, but probability is against you on it actually being massive).
Given this is still a darling, I am sure there will be plenty of people who dismiss the above, use narrow anecdotes to justify their position and say I don't get it, but to me there is absolutely nothing here other than a promotional management team and a good sounding concept.
As also I could be wrong and am happy to change my mind if the facts change, but I see very few actual facts that justify the current valuation or current bullishness.
I think this is a massive SELL.
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