Hope you don't mind me jumping in on your conversation, but I thought that I might throw in my thoughts.
From the open pit review on 24/09 the following forecasts were given
Sept Q 16000+ (actual 17,737)
Dec Q 7000-10000
March Q 7000-10000
June Q 20000-23000.
Full year 50000-60000
The presentation 27/10 updated this to
Sept Q 17,737
Dec Q 10000-12000
Mar Q 7000-10000
June Q 16000-21000
Full year 50000-60000
In my opinion their target has always been 50000-60000 for their fist full of production. As each quarter comes in they will adjust the other quarters to maintain this. Gives them plenty of wriggle room at the end if things go wrong, and a big fat tick if things go right. With the dry spell continuing (and no rain events predicted till at least mid Jan) and extra equipment, my guess is 14000+ for the Dec Q. Don't know how far they will adjust the June Q down if this happens. If thing go right we might see closer to 70,000 for the full year.
Just a bit of trivia, the month with the highest rainfall this year for Tubod (according to the accuweather website) was June with around 350mm. Interesting that the east wall movement occurred in early July.
My opinion so my not be worth a pinch of the proverbial goat crap.
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