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$15.14 neuren pharmaceuticals limited

Chance of results by chance in both trials miniscule (I think), page-4

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What A Gas

6,171 Posts.

1643

08/12/15

13:15

Post #: 16569040
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Originally posted by What A Gas ↑

Think my post was total rubbish and you are on the right track. If both results are independent of each other (which I think they are) then you are on the right track (whatever that means as far as final efficacy of Trofinetide in Rett's and FX is concerned is another matter)

[ pr (RT and FX) = 0.977 * 0.955 = 0.9330
pr (RT and not FX) = 0.977 * 0.045 = 0.0440
pr (not RT and FX) = 0.023 * 0.955 = 0.0220
pr (not RT and not FX) = 0.023 * 0.045 = 0.0010

total = 1.0 as it should. ]

So it is a 0.01(035) chance that BOTH results were due to chance. That is not to say that these probabilities represent (anything like) the actual probabilities that Trofinetide will provide enough efficacy in one or both indications, as more trials proceed, to warrant bringing it to market. Wish that it was so because they are pretty handsome odds!

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Sorry that should be a 0.001(035) of BOTH results being due to chance.

NEU Price at posting: 11.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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