BHP $19 dollars aussie here we come..., page-205

Sorry Stocks78, that article went nowhere in explaining why BHP share are / look cheap. Pretty pathetic article really, considering it was written by a stock picking company - more writers in here give more compelling arguments!

BHP's asset base is rock solid and their asset management is pretty good too, though they are shite at buying off the self assets and have had some disasters with start-up projects. On a historical basis, BHP should have an SP of around, say, $60 today, but their various disasters have squandered considerable shareholder wealth and limited SP growth.

The reason the SP is so low now, and in my view going lower, is that they currently have a management that shows no spark at all. Steady, conservative, dull. That's usually good in a blue chip behemoth like BHP, but totally inappropriate in the fast moving (sinking?) world of mineral commodities that currently exists. "Batten down the hatches and wait out the storm" is not a winning formula when the "four pillars" of their business are all flatlining.

Motley Fool may think that even if they halve their divvy, they will still have a great DY. MF misses the point entirely: no matter how big, miners will always have a high degree of speculative value built into their SP. Right now, BHP's is zero.

Calling the bottom doesn't help much. Buying BHP but not seeing their SP move for at least 3 years is hardly a good strategy. So ppl are waiting for a ridiculous over-sell so that can at least gain something on the minor correction back to "fair value". We all need luck with that.