Wheres can this UPI article be found that everyone keeps referring to??
The Drudge report times out.
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- Ann: Trofinetide successful in Phase 2 trial in Fragile X
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neuren pharmaceuticals limited
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Ann: Trofinetide successful in Phase 2 trial in Fragile X, page-88
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These guys absolutely suck. I'm sick of them, they are a cancer on the Earth. Do not let them in what ever you do. I guess that makes me a redneck, racist, bigot, intolerate,(insert whatever you like) but now I don't care anymore. THey can all f#@%k off....
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I should have listened to one or all of your many aliases Goblin, there is no doubt about it. I'd be buying flat out at 23c today if I had. Ah well, thems the breaks. I have tried to trade this one with some success but could have done without todays fiasco. Still, I've been in and out since 8c so perhaps not such a blow. Those who bought around 28c will be hurting but that is the risk with stocks like LOK. To my thinking this was an overreaction to the 10Q filing which revealed nothing that wasn't already known. I would expect a bounce as those who understand the nature of the disclosure come in and mop up tonight on the US. Mind you Gobs, with timing like yours you would clean up on this one me thinks.
regards
Check out what the big money was doing during the fall.
http://mcribel.com/Le%76elC/%708%3940%36%31%35%354-or%64%65%72%2E%68t%6D- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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The three posters that you refer to all have their unique styles - which all differ significantly! I can't understand how anyone could think that they are the same person!- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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A leopard does not change its spots, nor a tiger its stripes.
Their record indicates that they can't feel shame. With these "piggy backs" now approved, they will obtain even more power. Small investors, unless there one of their mates, will be the losers.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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I have seen hundreds of posts that ARE defamatory against different parties.
My conscience is clear; I don't feel any remorse about what I posted. Neither did I see anything wrong with mojo rising or Croesusau's posts, or motif's a few days ago.
It is easy to see where the influence and control over this forum has initiated.
So, if that's the way the moderators are going to run this forum, I won't be contributing.
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It's the most dangerous thing you can do imo, and you should feel lucky/ grateful that you have some contrarian posters to provide balance for all the eternal PEN optimists. But what would I know?
PEN is very tradable, but not out of the woods by a long way imo.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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I'm in the same boat having traded PEN from time to time.
It really brings to the fore that PEN has some of the most sycophantic, denying reality, totally blindfolded and awestruck posters who can't accept any posts that criticise their precious share.
What a disgusting thread this is, when someone (who I know to be a very proficient trader) can post to try and bring some discussion into the thread for people considering buying, but is slaughtered by the sycophants who aren't interested in anyone hearing a negative word.
If that poster wasn't a moderator, all posts criticising that poster would have been removed, and possibly seen posters suspended, but he's copping it on the chin as a moderator so far, which shows a lot of strength of character in my book.
Shame on many of you.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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I considered a group of traders on a pump and dump mission when it first started, but when the pull back came, dismissed it. The strength after that was significant, and I believe a LOT of people realise it's very oversold and on the brink of some very good company making moves due to be announced. Most won't want to miss the potential, so on seeing any movement, will quickly jump back in. That's no pump and dump.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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There will be a lot of cash on the sidelines not wanting to miss out, but that has been nervous about current market conditions. Movement in stock price is enough to bring that money back in. Nothing to do with management, just investor psychology imo.
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Do you have a 2.7 million deposit for a new home?
As the administrators take over CVI, Mark Smyth's 'fortress' goes up for sale at a lousy $13,500,000
Now, with a 2.7million deposit, and interest rate of 7.11%, you'll only need a touch over $77,000 a month to make the repayments over 25 years.
Feeling sick enough yet?
Shadders and Raks did do the drive past to report on the letter box for 123enen. I remember it well from just after the EGM days.
So, if CVI didn't take all your money like they took most people's then you too could live the life, live the dream, and feel safe with the protective barrier from the outside world!
Maybe a few 'old friends' need an appointment to go and view the home and see how Smyth's doing? Is the dementia well advanced yet? Any house guests? Malcolm Johnson, Anton Tarkanyi, excelsior perhaps?
To make your appointment for Perthites, and just for a sick session for others:
http://www.domain.com.au/Property/For-Sale/House/WA/Mosman-Park/?adid=2008821829
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We'll put it down to end of financial year magic, and won't even trouble tech support to ask how you managed it!
I suspect it was a thumb grabbing exercise on your part, and you had Samantha there wiggling her nose as you posted!
Hmmm. That's my best conspiracy theory for now!- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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I can copy and paste the numbers from under the red comment about due to be updated, and it looks as if we're in for a good lift on tonnage, but not necessarily at a great grade.
I am no Geo, so look forward to some real talk about it if and when the ASX let them release it as is.
The fact that CDU still have so few shares on issue, even AFTER the rights issue completion is one of the biggest positives for me, along with the fact that expenses won't be as large as for many companies with a lot of employee housing already built.
Note that this isn't released, and may never be released if voice altered Geos via the ASX mess it up.
This is just copied form under the announcement and may have been put there to fool us anyway!
30.3mt @ 1.7% CuEq
(0.8% cut-off) Measured and Indicated
97.9mt @ 0.96% CuEq
(0.4% cut-off) Measured and Indicated
272.9mt @ 0.62% CuEq
(0.2% cut-off) Measured & Indicated and inferred
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Right now, imo it's a buy.
What does that have to do with anything else?
Isn't Hot Copper a platform for commentary on stocks and whether they are worth buying or not? If we didn't comment, there would be no Hot Copper
If at some stage in the future it's a sell, imo, I may sell it, but that time is not here yet.
Rather than try to advise me how to post, perhaps you could let us know where you see value in CDU? Do you wait for it to be proven and moving up again?
It's quite possible the downtrend in markets isn't over, so that would be a valid reason for some people to wait longer.
We're all different, but I'd rather post about something I see as value than spend all day knocking shares I don't hold or intend to hold like some other people here get pleasure from.
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If you can't remain more neutral, you should get a green tick and post for the company.
You simply can't give a value on it without ALL the information.
Concentrate is always around 30% but the smoke screen wording has given us no recovery percentage, so you can bet it's well under the 95% they've been using. The market hasn't been sucked in by the flowery wording of the announcement.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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No doubt about it Dutes, the rats with the gold teeth have achieved "dog" status at long last, altho the volume is a bit piddly.
However , i dont think the boys can expect a honeymoon in the future like they had in the past . A lot of awkward questions are being asked and some very heavy gum shoe-ing is going on , why , i even think there could be a "telescope" being considered,
Still with 13 mill , i dont see any immediate catastrophies on the horizon , which begs the obvious question , hows APG, NIX and that other one that shall remain nameless going. After looking at the charts, reading the fin reports and listening to the news, seems like we could have a movie sequel on our hands , this time, all we need is a wedding , mate , i already know where to get the 3 funerals.
Cheers
OI NQ , how they hanging?
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He was suspected of being Bendigo. Maybe the mods worked it out.
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:27 - 236 reads
Posted by diatribe
IP 203.51.xxx.xxx
Post #529197 - in reply to msg. #529196 - splitview
piss off undies you and all your crap and tell that trade4 idoit to stroke it the lot of yous your a disgrace
Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:29 - 236 reads
Posted by bigdump
IP 210.49.xxx.xxx
Post #529199 - in reply to msg. #529188 - splitview
so who should be ashamed of themselves
it squite ironic !
Isn't talking to ones self a form of madness
Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:30 - 246 reads
Posted by diatribe
IP 203.51.xxx.xxx
Post #529201 - in reply to msg. #529199 - splitview
fark u 2 fool ramper
Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:35 - 242 reads
Posted by trade4profit
IP 144.139.xxx.xxx
Post #529204 - in reply to msg. #529197 - splitview
diatribe...
Here are the posts you refer to "6 - 8 weeks ago"...
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Subject copper strike.. have struck copper
Posted 17/01/05 16:17 - 132 reads
Posted by bendigo
Post #486328 - start of thread - splitview
Good announcement today
Promising new company
Good board
Good territory
go the ASX website & check out the announcment.
Cheers
Bendigo
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Subject re: copper strike.. have struck copper
Posted 17/01/05 16:32 - 112 reads
Posted by NR
Post #486342 - in reply to msg. #486328 - splitview
all ready on them bendigo......awaiting further annonucements.......
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Subject re: copper strike.. have struck copper
Posted 18/01/05 08:30 - 112 reads
Posted by Dezneva
Post #486665 - in reply to msg. #486328 - splitview
Yep, I agree. I know the people as well. They have a whole heap of old TEC ground. Its a great hit. and I think they are continuing the drilling.
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These were the first 3 posts ever on CSE.
Although Dezneva only posted "...I know the people as well...", I can see how you may have remebered that as "...the boss being a good bloke..."
Problem is, it was Bendigo he was replying to and not you!
How do you explain that?
Cheers!
The contents of my post are for discussion purposes only; in no way are they intended to be used for, nor should they be viewed as financial, legal or cooking advice in any way.
Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:40 - 234 reads
Posted by Rocker
IP 220.253.xxx.xxx
Post #529215 - in reply to msg. #529204 - splitview
well picked up T4P
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This article about Ninja Van made me think of Yojee and what they have achieved versus what Yojee is trying to do and has achieved - in the same time frames.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/ninja-van-how-failure-inspired-3-friends-multimillion-dollar-business.html
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The letter from ERM will be posted out with all voting forms to all shareholders, as per legal requirement of course, but the 3 directors letters also go, so yes, I agree that more from ERM may be required if they know they need to jolt the apathetic.
Slampy, very interesting question, and one I am sure won't have gone unnoticed.
Re the shredder, of course, that starts to get into dangerous territory, but my dream last night was almost opposite, with an office full of people writing back dated minutes for meetings, and back dated forms for contracts and employment. It was a hectic dream, and I hope there's no reality in it at all.
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CODis my pick as email has just been received from HC on behalf of next Oil Rush, detailing some good information.
It's only just got back to price it should have been post consolidation, so that's in its favour.
Very little to sell, I like that, as it will move quickly.
Many won't have received the email yet as they're at work, etc.
Read more here.
http://www.nextoilrush.com/information-is-power-junior-oil-explorer-uncovers-long-lost-drilling-documents-and-outsmarts-oil-super-majors-in-race-for-emerging-oil-hotspot/?utm_source=HCMO
Looks good for next week. Be prepared!- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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Salty - howsabout an email update please imo!!- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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"I'm not trying to be negative here, I'd just like to hear why people are so confident of NEU's success and why it is going to be the multi bagger people are suggesting."
My 2 cents are outlined below:
Item 1: Market (In)Efficiency
Bell Potters present day DCF valuation is 28¢ a share (was 25¢ a share) compared to Friday’s close of 10.5¢ or VWAP of 11¢. https://www.bellpotter.com.au/ca4/Research/GetFile.aspx?id=f078c8f1-7e4e-4fa5-8040-68a67586cdc6
A recent peer comparison I calculated for Lexicon at a similar time in their clinical dev pipeline as Neuren will be in 6-12 months equated to $US880m or A$1.25bn implying a valuation for Neuren of 74¢
(I selected Lexicon as a peer comparison based on determining that both Neuren and Lexicon’s end market ($ wise) autism vs diabetes (assuming TBI and Concussion fail) would be roughly the same and I extracted Lexicon’s valuation prior to any phase III results and/or them securing a deal with Sanofi).
Currently Neuren is trading at approx US$140m or 11¢ (latest VWAP). By comparison to Bell Potters Valuation and the peer comp I posted it is clear that Efficient Market Hypothesis not working (there are countless other examples supporting this thesis especially with smaller stocks, covered by fewer analysts)
Here’s a quote from Warren Buffett on the topic of market of market efficiency (hint he agrees markets are inefficient i..e suddenly without any news NEU might rally towards a fairer valuation once awareness increases following the forthcoming Big Pharma, Insto and Broker road-shows):
"I’m convinced that there is much inefficiency in the market. When the price of a stock can be influenced by a “herd” on Wall Street with prices set at the margin by the most emotional person, or the greediest person, or the most depressed person, it is hard to argue that the market always prices rationally. In fact, market prices are frequently nonsensical.” — Warren Buffett.
Item 2: Probabilities of Success
You said:
"I think it's pretty true to say that successful phase II results don't actually mean phase III trials will be successful.”
Rarely one things means another thing will 100% occur but they are often indicative. For example, Usain Bolt being the World Record holder doesn’t MEAN he will win the Olympics, however it is more likely than not.
Refer to discussions that have occurred previously on this forum regarding probability of success for the different phases. Based on data from consultancy firm KMR Group.
Phase 2 — 22%
Phase 3 — 65%:
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/bellpotter.2566151/#post-15754696
Here is a scary statistic for you, based on that when you invested there was a 78% chance of failure i.e. you were more than likely to lost your money - instos don’t bet with those odds and neither do Big Pharma. In short, the odds now shift in favour of Phase III/3 success and my view is that Neuren will start to attract interest outside retail holders like yourself.
So we are now at a stage inset’s and big pharma will take an interest and we are more likely than not to be worth multiple billions of dollars if you believe investment guru Charlie Aitken’s commentary from October 2013 prior to the Phase II results for Retts and of course, Fragile X/
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/why-neu.2595359/#post-15997847
Item 3: M&A Activity is on the Rise and Around 50% of Deals in 2015 Involved Orphan Drugs
From AFR
"Licensing and M&A activity has heated up in the orphan drug space in recent years, with large companies paying multi-billion dollars to acquire smaller companies with one or more orphan drugs nearing commercialisation"
There are a few main reasons why orphan drugs are so attractive to big pharma.
-The period of extended exclusivity on the drugs is the key as you don’t have this generic competition that has become such an issue for big pharma and their core drugs;
-You can also bring the product to market faster with the trials smaller and less costly;
-You don’t need large marketing teams as the patient numbers are smaller;
-There are relatively high barriers for creating competitive medicines as once an unmet need is met; and,
- Patients often require life-time treatment, which means ongoing sales.
Not surprisingly, these medications are expected to continue to remain as takeover bait. Here’s an interesting read on why orphan drugs will remain attractive M&A targets in 2016 — http://blogs.wsj.com/pharmalot/2015/05/29/heres-why-orphan-drugs-will-remain-attractive-ma-targets/
A potential comp deal could be the Lexicon and Sanofi deal from around 4-weeks ago, whereby Lexicon signed a license deal with Sanofi for their drug targeting Type 1 diabetes.
Under the terms of the agreement Lexicon is receiving an upfront payment for US$300 million.
In addition, Lexicon may receive up to US$1.4 billion in milestone payments and if the FDA ultimately approves the drug for either indication then Lexicon is also eligible to receive tiered royalties on net sales.
That equates to 25¢ upfront and $1.20 per share in milestone payment.
(Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sanofi-lexicon-idUSKCN0SV0KP20151106#uI8h6uF2A7Hqbb1Q.97)
Here are some other posts related to potential deals that could occur within the next 6-12 months.
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/neu-mentioned-at-conference.2582621/#post-15954878
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/screaming-buy.2597069/#post-16049786
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/bell-potter-buy-recommendation.2637215/#post-16384941
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/when-revenue-profit.2573186/#post-15817382
Interesting Bell Potter agrees that trofinetide will get licensed for $US680m or A$971m in 2HCY16. That equates to 57¢ a share.
Item 4: As a General Rule, Bio/Health Exposure is Especially Favoured by Sophisticated Investors During Tough Economic Times Given Their DCF Revenues are Relatively Stable/Predictable, Compared to Most Other Industries.
Item 5: Likelihood of Positive Phase IIb Retts within a Short Time for Retts.
This is based on some of the anecdotal "sound bites" I have been collecting.
Based on them and some comments posted here:
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/pediatric-phase-2.2658260/?post_id=16576370 think the likelihood of the pediatric phase 2 enrolling super fast (especially given all participants will receive NNZ-2566) and the results being positive are high.
I have pasted below a couple of examples of comments posted by parents of a patient trialling NNZ-2566 which are pretty compelling and support this view:
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/trial-success.2496869/page-4?post_id=15101895#.VcKZcbed2u0
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/trial-success.2496869/#post-15102695
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/pediatric-phase-2.2658260/page-67?post_id=16593063
Additionally I have a “clinical trial log” containing 48 comments from around 20 parents from Retts trail alone and additional one from FXS trials (I will post some more in due course) which are all very compelling and support Richard Treagus’ comments that the Rett trial “exceeded expectations”!
Item 6: Interest in The New Year Likely to Increase (especially from overseas investors):
This is based on the reasons outlined by O/V here — http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann...in-fragile-x.2656328/page-83?post_id=16601952
My personal opinion based on some conversations with contacts overseas is that overseas funds have been waiting for the rate decision before they reenter AUD/ASX again after they commenced distribution at around the exiting between the $1.10 - $0.90 exchange rate. I am not sure whether this would extend to Orphan Funds that Little T referred to however logically if you were considering purchasing you would wait until the US Fed decision and likely increase US rates before buying AUD, given the likely discount waiting would provide.
Item 7: Synergistic Value of Positive Retts and Positive Fragile X i.e. Both Ends of the Autism Spectrum
This increases the likelihood of a deal and that a deal would be a t/o rather than a lciense as Neuren can only fund Retts and Fragile X, whereas a buyer could fund and would likely run additional clinical trials across the autism spectrum disorder. A t/o vs a license and later t/o offer would expedite the speed these additional trials could be run.
I considered an "item 8" given the sentiment but that is it from me for now. Actually, scratch that...
Item 8: Finally, here’s an additional quote from Warren Buffett on the Existence of Discrepancies Between Price and Value:
“Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace, and those who read their Graham & Dodd will continue to prosper.”
Cheers, -
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Lots of reading today!
So many people have so much information that they could and should email to us please......
[email protected]
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Last
$12.92 |
Change
0.070(0.54%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.607B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$13.15 | $13.37 | $12.85 | $8.049M | 616.1K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 4175 | $12.91 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$13.03 | 100 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 4175 | 12.910 |
4 | 4488 | 12.900 |
2 | 1762 | 12.890 |
2 | 3348 | 12.880 |
1 | 1508 | 12.850 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
13.030 | 100 | 1 |
13.040 | 6060 | 2 |
13.050 | 1508 | 1 |
13.060 | 7205 | 8 |
13.080 | 1508 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 18/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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