Ann: Atlas signs debt restructure agreement, page-91

pretty sure Tomboy is a bond holder or involved in the deal somehow. It is just mirculous and incredulous (ie; you'd have to be credulous to believe the coincidence) how he came on here, suspiciously a few days in advance of the announcement, spruiking this like a headless chicken, full of facts and spitting surety like a lobotomised monkey banging a drum. Nothing suss!

I think this deal has a good chance of failing.

The mining contractor has a chunk of shares and a profit sharing agreement. if they approve it, they lose any control they have and dilute their surety (which is their equity) over what "assets" AGO has. I mean, they are up the creek sans paddle now, and they surely know it, so why would they give up their profit share arrangement in prefernce to the bondholders getting 70% and putting a straitjacket on the cash component of the company?

Also, how does AGO intend to honour its contract with the contractor? it is putting in a contract atop the existing contract, and having to set a priority on cash allocation between different classes of ceditors. For instance, the day to day invoices of the contractor could be refused or imperilled if the cash goes below $55M, because AGO can't do that. So the contractor is shafted. If the cash builds up too much, the profit-sharing arrangement could be at risk or nullified by the structure of this deal, if the clauses of one contract conflict with the other. It could be that the Fe price rises to a position where a profit should be shared with the contractor but cannot be because the cash has to go out the door first to the bond holders.

Then there's the creeping doom provision of the PIK share issuance which is open ended, and is further dilutive.

This deal shuld also trigger a change of control provision in the Corporations Act given the existing holders are being massively diluted. This could mean it requires 75% approval and could be knocked on the head.

The issue price of the Oppies are also a crap shoot.

This may be the sausage meat in the deal, which is always ugly to make, but I'd say the mining contractor would be best off just pulling out entirely and sinking this ship right now, versus losing 70% of the ship on the rocks and then losing money hand over fist with no hope of being repaid.

Flanno, mate, just throw a match on it, publish a Mea culpa in Miningnews, tell the world you have no clothes, never had a clue, made a few stuff ups (like, everything since 2006), and donate your salary and bonus to some kids in Angola or something.