so, bout those banks ....and those numbers.....
here is a small sample size of long and short CMX GOLD for december periods last 3 years
another glaring story is the bias in a trend? ....maybe
the numbers denote internal U.S banks and external (non-U.S) banks
anyone can view these numbers, not that everyone does as it tends to be too..... empiric
at least of themselves
in the above charts i've placed the 2 bank groups to show how the bias has been within the trend
- the numbers fits well with this idea:
that in dec 13 buying the bargains, the previous decadal trend is still a strong idea: Buy to Open
that in dec 14 some bargains, some hedging, the rest werent sure, so theyre flat: Sell to Close
that in dec 15 we're now in typical trend following mode, at the beginning of that bias: Sell to Open
in 2014 non-U.S banks decided to take advantage of the trend: Sell to Open
in 2015 non-U.S banks pared back their STO positions and were (balanced) long compared to both 2013 and 2014
(keep in mind these are dec contracts only)
i have particularly chosen these three as they cannot be, in toto, manipulated and relative to each other they amplify sentiment regardless the size of revolving liquidity (keeping in mind that there is both buy-side liquidity and sell-side liquidity)
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